Shifts in supply availability, evolving policy frameworks and the early deployment of low-carbon production reshaped regional balances and global trade flows throughout 2025.

Green ammonia moved from concept to initial execution, with the first commercial-scale output emerging in East Asia. Elsewhere, activity largely remained at the pilot or demonstration stage. Progress across the low-carbon segment was uneven, constrained by regulatory uncertainty in the maritime sector, limited long-term offtake commitments and ongoing financing challenges.

Market sentiment was influenced by several operational and logistical disruptions during the year. An explosion at a major export port in the Middle East raised concerns over storage safety and regional export reliability. Later, an incident at a key Baltic export terminal underscored the vulnerability of ammonia logistics infrastructure in politically sensitive supply corridors.

In Europe, policy measures played a decisive role in altering trade patterns. New tariffs on fertiliser imports from Eastern supply sources were introduced mid-year as part of a broader strategy to reduce dependence on those flows. These measures are set to tighten further through the end of the decade, steadily eroding the competitiveness of affected material in the regional market.

Asia remained central to global market developments. Expanding conventional capacity and the start-up of multiple low-carbon projects significantly increased domestic availability in the region’s largest producing market. As a result, import requirements fell sharply, reaching historically low levels by late 2025.

At the same time, export volumes rose markedly. Competitive pricing enabled regional producers to place material into a tightening Asian market, with shipments reaching South Asia, Southeast Asia, North Africa and Northeast Asia. If sustained, this trend is expected to shift the region’s largest producer into a net export position on an annual basis in the near term.

In South Asia, fertiliser demand was heavily shaped by weather patterns. A delayed monsoon initially dampened procurement, followed by a strong rebound later in the season. Higher downstream fertiliser prices supported increased ammonia consumption. A large public tender for green ammonia marked a significant step toward integrating low-carbon supply into domestic fertiliser use.

Supply constraints were also evident elsewhere. In parts of the Middle East, repeated outages at a major export-oriented facility limited spot availability. In the Americas, elevated gas costs, port fee disputes and unplanned shutdowns reduced output, driving higher import requirements into certain consuming regions and tightening availability west of Suez.

Regulatory uncertainty continued to weigh on low-carbon fuel prospects. The postponement of key international shipping regulations delayed mechanisms viewed as critical to improving the competitiveness of green ammonia as a bunker fuel. Meanwhile, newly announced default emissions benchmarks in Europe set stricter thresholds than widely anticipated, disadvantaging producers in regions with higher carbon intensity.

Looking ahead to 2026, the ammonia market is expected to move gradually toward clearer direction. While policy uncertainty and uneven regional dynamics will persist, ongoing supply realignment, emerging low-carbon projects and evolving trade flows are likely to improve market visibility. Opportunities are expected to favour projects that are technically robust, commercially viable and aligned with long-term structural demand.